November 15, 2025
On the eve of the 14th National Congress of the ruling Communist Party of Vietnam, the power picture is at its most uncertain stage. Closed meetings of the party’s Central Committee are prolonged, personnel decisions are kept secret until the last minute.
Notably, unusual adjustments in the Politburo structure show that a tense negotiation is taking place behind the scenes. General Secretary To Lam is facing the biggest obstacle, which is the possibility of being considered a „special case“ to stay.
According to analysts, raising the re-election age from 65 to 67 is considered a moderate solution, both creating opportunities for incumbent Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh and paving the way for the party chief to overcome the 65-year age limit.
But when only one special position is reserved for the General Secretary, that regulation has become the center of conflict as the conservative faction led by State President Luong Cuong firmly reserved the age principle, considering „crossing the line“ as a violation of the party’s organizational principles and those over the age must retire.
By holding tight to this principle, individuals and factions do not need to openly confront the General Secretary but still make To Lam’s re-election chances more fragile than ever.
Meanwhile, the power structure is being adjusted to reduce the role of the police faction. The new Politburo is expected to have only four police representatives instead of seven while the Military faction will increase from three to four.
According to international analysts, the party wants to restore the balance between the pillars of power, avoiding a situation where one group dominates the entire system.
At the same time, young figures such as Le Minh Hung and Nguyen Thanh Nghi have emerged as successors, reflecting the trend of „rejuvenation“ for the technocrats, an effort to renew the leadership image, and reduce the number of police officers in the current leadership apparatus.
However, To Lam still possesses a significant power base, a large number of current Politburo members, including key figures such as Nguyen Duy Ngoc, Luong Tam Quang and others from Hung Yen province are still said to fully support the General Secretary.
However, this support is considered very „fragile“ if Le Minh Hung, a native of Ha Tinh, changes his stance in choosing a side, the situation in the party will immediately reverse. If this really happens, PM Chinh will become a decisive intermediary factor. If Chinh supports the age principle, he will eliminate his main opponentTo Lam but at the same time, he will also cut off his own chance of re-election. If the PM accepts the special quota, it will mean that he is helping the police faction.
According to political experts, the failure of the 14th Plenum of the Central Committee’s in finalizing the list of „four pillars“ is sometimes a „necessary“ factor. Because time can change the power situation if the parties can come up with new agreements that are mutually beneficial.
But more importantly, both the police and army factions are waiting for a signal of internal consensus within the party, or from an objective change strong enough to force the other side to make concessions.
However, what makes To Lam’s future more unpredictable is the image factor and the compliance with organizational discipline in the eyes of key leaders of the Communist Party of Vietnam.
Past incidents, from the MobiFone-AVG story to the “gold-plated beef” party, although no longer causing noise, are still a dark spot related to the issue of ethics and qualities of the leader.
In short, the most important question is probably not only whether To Lam can survive at the 15th Plenum but who will succeed him as General Secretary for the 14th National Congress?
Tra My – Thoibao.de
